By the way, I’m not sure if you’re Cristiano Ronaldo achieves 700 career goals signature shirt but 538 have a bunch of things added to their model, which includes adjusting for each players’ individual scoring rate compared to their xG, and they’re even doing a ‘non-shot expected goals’ where they take xG even when a shot isn’t taken, but is just in a good shooting area. Personally I’d guess this makes the bias against counterattacking sides even greater, but yeah it’s worth taking a look at their methodology (even if it’s not too in-depth) if you’re interested.
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What an incredible assessment on this subject, it’s much easier for me to understand regarding the term of xG. Thank you, OP for this amazing post! I see the point Cristiano Ronaldo achieves 700 career goals signature shirt you are trying to make OP but this will confuse some readers. Just to clarify, most xG models do not add xG to every single corner, only shots from corners. What OP is trying to say is that shots that come from headers will have a differemt xG than a regular shot.
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This is actually still confusing. Is OP trying to say that from the last 1000 shots from a corner led to 150 goals? Because the sentence literally reads as the last 1000 corners led to 150 goals, which is probably not what they meant. What do you do about all the Cristiano Ronaldo achieves 700 career goals signature shirt variables involved that affect the quality of a shot, like the weather for example? Slippery conditions or high wind could mean that attacking players take riskier shots from further out because they’re much harder for the keeper to deal with.